Model Public Policy (An assessment of the fiscal situation of an EU economy following the structure of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Fiscal Assessment Report.)

Paper, Order, or Assignment Requirements

 

 

Module Title: Public Policy

Written work

• Your student identification number must be clearly stated at the top of each page of your work.

• Each page must be numbered.

• Please use a minimum font size of 14.

• Where appropriate, a contents page, a list of tables/figures and a list of abbreviations should precede your work.

• All referencing must adhere to School/Institutional requirements.

• A word count must be stated at the end of your work.

• Your course, year of study and the relevant module must be included as a “footer” on each page.

• Appendices should be kept to the minimum and be of direct relevance to the content of your work.

• All tables and figures must be correctly numbered and labelled.

• Your assignment/coursework should be submitted in one A4 transparent pocket.

REQUIRED:
The citation method to be used for this paper is Harvard style. 

Produce a 1,500 word analytical review essay on:

An assessment of the fiscal situation of an EU economy following the structure of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Fiscal Assessment Report. 

Maximum word count 1,500 words. 

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

Standard assessment regulations apply. You must reference your work as required by regulations and must include a bibliography.
Essay lecture

1.
2.
3. Recovery is gradually broadening

Want relative stability in these numbers around 0

4. H1 GDP growth boosted by contract manufacturing

When you look at different countries fiscal position have to take in that there has been a change in how GDP is calculated this year

5. Irish fiscal advisory council

These graphs tell you how much interest you would have to pay

What is the current fiscal position of Ireland? 
6. Deficit continues to fall

Everyone in the EU has a deficit besides Germany

4 components of European policy making that have to be complied with (assessed by the European semester):- 
• Stability and growth pack – golden rule (when you violate SGP you trigger the excessive deficit procedure – potential GDP is calculated if running below can be in nominal deficit)
• Fiscal compact
• 6 pact
• 2 pact

7. Crisis leaves legacy of high debt levels

60% is the rule however put the line at 100% here as once you get over 100% things get really complicated
If it’s really high you’re looking at debt overhang

In Britain would be looking at around 85% now

8. Uncertainty around growth prospects

Put in error of plus or minus 1%

9. Macro and fiscal improvements presented opportunity to move public finances decisively into safer territory

10. General government debt

11. Deficit sensitive to growth shocks

Take calculations of all your revenue figures – what is the situation if growth is plus or minus 0.5% 1.5%?
You consistently have the ability to talk about figure sensitivity 

From 2008 to 2014 had a drop in GDP growth 

12. Importance of Ireland’s new budgetary framework

Luxemburg is a large tax avoidance country 
13.
14. Medium-term profiles in Budget 2015

15. Budget 2015 medium-term projections

3 big expenditures:-
• Education
• Health
• Social transfers
In Britain what would be these 3 areas expenditure trend
Go up in health and social transfers – more old people
Flat line in education

Germany education going down as less children so make up for rise in health and social transfers
In Ireland there’s been a baby boom so all areas are going to go up
In every country health is constantly going up
Also social transfers is a problem
NEETs – not in education, employment or training
In Britain NEETs are not a huge problem, however Spain, Italy and Greece this is a huge problem

16. Summary 

The report itself

Quarterly reports 
Irish ones considered to be very good 

www.imf.org 
Debt sustainability analysis – .xls available to download from IMF
For the most part a lot of this data will be available for you to fill in
Look at debt sustainability analysis from other countries
Revenue, structural balance and sources of increase in debt to GDP ratio are important areas to look at

www.oecd.org
Will have lots data on European countries

Ec.europa.eu/Eurostat 
Goes to regional level as well as country by country
Policy and surveillance
Databases and indicators

He encourages the use of graphs – make sure to explain them – make sure to reference them 

Lay it out like a report 

find the cost of your paper